Recorded events
Hail and wind recorded near San Juan Capistrano
Radar has picked up hail-bearing storm cells within ten miles of San Juan Capistrano on two days: 5 October 2021 and 10 September 2021. Here is what was recorded, and what is worth checking as a result.
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The hail record
The most recent detection was on 5 October 2021, about 5 years ago. Radar sized the largest stone in that cell at about 0.75 inches, below the one-inch line, which usually means bruising and granule loss rather than obvious damage. The nearest cell was about 8.1 miles away, which is close enough to be worth checking and far enough that it may have missed the house entirely.
| Date | Largest stone sized by radar | Nearest cell | Cells that day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 October 2021 | 0.75 in | 8.1 mi | 3 |
| 10 September 2021 | 1.0 in | 9.3 mi | 2 |
Gusts, and when they happen
Over 5 years of daily records at this location, the highest modelled gust was about 56 mph, below the 58 mph severe threshold but well into the range that finds anything already lifted or loose. There were 15 days above 39 mph and 4 above 45 mph in that period, concentrated in January, February, and March.
| Date | Peak gust |
|---|---|
| 16 February 2026 | 46 mph |
| 8 January 2025 | 46 mph |
| 14 March 2024 | 56 mph |
| 1 February 2024 | 43 mph |
| 20 August 2023 | 43 mph |
| 21 March 2023 | 44 mph |
| 25 February 2023 | 50 mph |
| 14 December 2021 | 44 mph |
What to check afterwards
What landed on it
Wind-blown debris causes a surprising share of storm damage, and it is the one kind of damage that is genuinely obvious once somebody looks.
Granules where they should not be
A cupful of granules at the bottom of a downspout after a storm is not proof of impact — roofs shed granules as they age — but a sudden change is worth photographing with the date on it. What matters is the difference from last month, which is why photographing a sound roof now is not a wasted hour.
Flashing, chimneys and skylights
Most storm leaks are not through the field of the roof. They are at a junction — a chimney, a skylight, a wall abutment, a valley — where something is meant to be sealed and is not any more. Wind opens those seams before it opens anything else.
What the street is doing
If several roofs on the street are being worked on and yours is the same age and the same covering, that is a reason to have yours looked at. It is not a reason to assume you have damage, and a contractor who tells you the whole street is getting a new roof paid for by insurance is telling you something about themselves.
The ridge and the edges
Wind does not lift a roof from the middle. It gets under an edge — the rake, the eave, the ridge cap — and peels inward from there. Those are the places to look at from the ground with binoculars after a wind event, and they are the places a marginal roof gives up first.
About this data
Hail detections come from NOAA NCEI’s Severe Weather Data Inventory (NEXRAD product nx3hail) within 10 miles of San Juan Capistrano. Radar sizes hail in a storm cell; it does not observe what landed on any particular roof. Gust figures are daily maxima from the ERA5 reanalysis archive at this city’s coordinates, which is a model of the weather rather than a reading from an instrument in the neighbourhood. Both are useful for dates and for scale, and neither is evidence about your roof. Last refreshed 2026-08-31.
Storm damage questions
There was a storm near me. Do I have damage?
A recorded storm nearby is a reason to have the roof looked at, not evidence that anything happened to it. The useful first check costs nothing: dents in the soft metal around the roof, and a look in the attic on a bright day.
Get the roof looked at
No cost. We email you once when a provider near you can take it on.